Articles of the year 2006

The situation developing, or being allowed to develop around the Iran Nuclear issue has certain very important concerns that will affect not only the region, but the effect will be disastrous for every middle class citizen throughout the world. If the oil price were to triple, then every housewife, every consumer every commuter would suddenly find themselves facing an economic Tsunami. The price jump of all essential goods would put most of the Middle class as we know it into a bankruptcy mode. Most people are already leveraged, and most salaries are committed to servicing the mortgages/and or loans.

The run up to the crisis is the Neo Con desire for regime change, which has become a cornerstone of the US policy ever since it has assumed the role of sole super power. The methodology employed in the Iraq war has backfired very badly, for removing Saddam may have been easier than was first thought, but to destroy his Baathist machine was a disastrous miscalculation. After all, a machine that sustained Saddam in Power for over thirty years was too well entrenched to be so easily dismantled. The Americans invented the word hype, and they bought the hype they had themselves created over the fragile nature of the Baath regime--- or so they thought. They are now looking at a full scale Civil war, and as any student of History knows these go on for a long long time, before a winner is decided. You can also bet quite safely that whosoever does emerge will be as bloodied as a young Saddam. He will not know nor appreciate the niceties of a western democracy, and will put to the sword many more before he consolidates his rule. Healthy opposition is unknown in those regions. In fact opposition is bad for the health and eventually leads to a long incarceration or an early death. Unfortunately Hollywood has given the Americans a very short attention span, and the bulk of the US is amazed that the war has gone on so long, they are used to a 90 minute wrap.

The danger lies in an attack on Iran, for this would unite all the Muslim world behind the Iranians, as the WMD story has been discredited by the US Government themselves. Also the Shias, who are the most militant of the Muslims, will be unified as never before. The concentration and preponderance of the Shias is throughout Iran,Southern Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Damman, UAE. On the map this forms a perfect crescent and could well be the crescent of fire referred to by Nostradamus. Now the Shias are well known for their suicidal tendencies, and with their huge numbers it will be difficult to protect the oilfields from the Shias 24/7. This area produces 75% of the Worlds oil. With Iran's 4 million Barrels a day, just the thought alone has the Market at 60 $ a barrel. Which is an admittedly artificial price. The oil companies are reaping a bonanza, but it may unravel very quickly. And if an attack on Iran is launched then 200 $ a barrel, would destroy the purchasing power of every housewife in Europe and Japan.( Asia does not enter the equation, for we are only just moving from the bicycle and bullock cart mode, and we can go back without too much of a wrench). This effect would be immediate, ALL commodities would jump. That is the beauty of the free market economy—you raise the price before the price has been passed on to you. My cousin- a politician in Kasur just told me how one of her constituents rang her complaining of the price of Potatoes. And said it was because the price of petrol had just been increased. When asked what the price of petrol had to do with potatoes, he shot back ' Do you think they walk to the Mandi?' And so it will be with the European Housewife, with no relief in sight.

The Americans have not forgiven Castro for standing up to them, nor have they forgotten the storming of the Embassy of Iran. But the Neo-cons should realize that the Hype masters of Hollywood create and sell illusions. This is a very real world, and if any of the effects listed above do take effect, then the repercussions throughout the world will be too overwhelming for any spin-master to control. The biggest damage will be to the American commuter who has for generations lived the great American dream on cheap oil. This time the European will suffer along.